UNI Washington March 22: Rouge elements within the Pakistani military and its intelligence establishment are aiding Al-Qaeda members evade capture and making a mockery of the media hype about the fresh military operations against leaders such as Osama bin Laden, United States analysts have said.

ìCertain elements within the Pakistani state and society are known to sympathise with the Al Qaeda, and it is likely that certain rogue elements within the Pakistani military and intelligence establishment are helping Al Qaeda members evade capture,î said the analysts at the geopolitical intelligence firm strategic forecasting (Stratfor).

Following leaks out of Washington in February, the global media are rife with reports of renewed and vigorous efforts to nab senior Al Qaeda leaders.

The latest operation by the Pakistani army gave rise to media speculations that Al Qaeda number two Ayman al-Zwahri had been surrounded. However, those reports turned out to be baseless.

Despite US and Pakistani military activity along the northeastern border of Afghanistan, there has been no sign of Osama bin Laden or any of his top associates, Stratfor said.

ìThe generic explanations of why this has been the case cite difficult terrain and sympathetic natives ó particularly in the autonomous federally administered tribal area (FATA) ó but we must consider the possibility that influential elements are helping the jehadists elude their would-be captors,î it said.

With anti-Taliban and anti-Al Qaeda forces controlling Kabul, Stratfor said, the only remaining suspects are within Islamabadís Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) apparatus.

Contending that it had no doubt that the ISI leadership was firmly under President, General Pervez Musharrafís control thanks to certain personnel changes since September 11, 2001, Stratfor quoted sources close to Islamabad as saying that ìcertain old-school individuals ó from colonels on down ó remain in a position to thwart anti-Al Qaeda efforts.î

The sources told Stratfor that news travels fast when the military sets out on a fresh assault, and jehadist sympathisers relay the details to Bin Laden through a series of contacts.

ìThese ISI elements are no longer in positions of authority, but they retain sufficient influence to save Bin Ladenís hide,î the sources added.

ìSympathisers donít know where Bin Laden is, sources say, but are in touch with a network of middlemen who do know,î the sources added further.

Washington will give Gen Musharraf a chance to purge rogue military elements and provide information about the jehadistsí whereabouts, Stratfor said. But if he complies, Gen Musharraf will run the risk of dissent from within the military, which is his only remaining constituency, Stratfor added.

ìIf Gen Musharraf fails, the United States likely will take matters into its own hands. This inevitably would lead to the presidentís downfall. US troops operating openly in Pakistan likely would incite the masses and some in the military to revolt.î it said.

Mounting US pressure is creating significant problems for Gen Musharraf, it said. The Pakistan Presidentís principal opponents, who refuse to compromise, are taking this as a cue to move against the him.

Moreover, the exiled leadership of the two main non-Islamist parties ó the Pakistan Peopleís Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) ó are preparing to return home.

The PPP chairperson, Ms Benazir Bhutto has hinted that she might return to Pakistan later this year, and the PML-N leader, Mr Shahbaz Sharif also reportedly is considering returning to Pakistan before summer.

ìAlthough the outcome is unclear, Gen Musharraf does not appear to be in a position to prevent the Opposition from ganging up on him,î Stratfor said.

Stratfor said Gen Musharraf basically had two choices: he can produce Bin Laden, or he will have to convince Washington that he does not know where the Al-Qaeda leader is and that he has purged his intelligence agencies of people playing both sides.

ìEither way will be an uphill climb, further complicated by government and popular unrest,î it said.